"Flavien Vidal" (flyingfrenchy)
01/11/2016 at 01:34 • Filed to: None
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"Flavien Vidal" (flyingfrenchy)
01/11/2016 at 01:34 • Filed to: None | 1
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According to this article, probabilities of winning are 1 in 292.2 million:
!!! UNKNOWN CONTENT TYPE !!!
. Jackpot is going to be 1.3 billion $$. So if Donald Trump decides to buy 292.2 millions tickets that cost 2$ each, he is certain to win a sheer profit of 715.6 million $. How does that make any sense??
promoted by the color red
> Flavien Vidal
01/11/2016 at 01:42 |
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Ah, but that’s a pre-tax total of 1.3 billion dollars. The final total drops a large amount once those are factored in.
DrJohannVegas
> Flavien Vidal
01/11/2016 at 01:44 |
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One thing is the loss from the lump sum payout and taxes, as “promoted” mentioned. The other is that, if there are multiple winners, the pot is split. So, winnings are conditional on the number of other entrants. The 1 in 292.2 million number is for any single ticket being a total match, but don’t represent the probability of being a sole jackpot winner.
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Flavien Vidal
> promoted by the color red
01/11/2016 at 01:47 |
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Lotteries are not tax free in America?? how does that make sense since it is organized by the government itself? It’s like getting taxed on your tax refunds lol
Supreme Chancellor and Glorious Leader SaveTheIntegras
> Flavien Vidal
01/11/2016 at 01:59 |
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After federal and state tax, assuming you take the lump sum, you’ll walk with still $500m and change
Sam
> Flavien Vidal
01/11/2016 at 02:07 |
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The cash value is 890 million. So still a pretty large sum of money.
Anon
> Flavien Vidal
01/11/2016 at 02:27 |
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I’m still buying 4 tickets!
Mr. Ontop, No Strokes, No Smokes...Goes Fast.
> Sam
01/11/2016 at 02:56 |
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Don’t forget the state will take it’s cut of the remainder... I’ll still be happy to take it.
samssun
> Flavien Vidal
01/11/2016 at 06:31 |
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It doesn’t make sense, it’s what happens when you elect people who think the government owns all. Dividends work the same way: a company makes $100, government takes $35. Returned to shareholders, the remaining $65 is taxed again, so government takes another 20-25 (30-40%), leaving 40-45 of the original 100.
That’s why Apple would rather stack up $200 billion it’s earned abroad and find anything to invest it in, because bringing it here means politicians take over half. That Apple car won’t be made here.
jariten1781
> Flavien Vidal
01/11/2016 at 06:31 |
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Buying all the combinations would be a poor bet most of the time...pot would have to be a lot higher. If the numbers 1-12 or 1-31 show up (dates, selected a lot) odds are you’re going to be splitting the pot with a lot of people. 1 is especially bad if it shows, more than 15% of tickets sold have 1 checked. If there are 3-5 winners you just turned out to be a huge loser on your ‘investment’. Plus, over 75% of all possible combinations were sold for the last drawing, expect that to be in the 80%+ realm this time. Your odds of reaping a profit are going to be capped at <20% even with a guaranteed 'win'. Spending $600M on a single asset for a <20% chance of breaking even is something people with $600M dollars don't do, otherwise they wouldn't have $600M in the first place.
That said, there’s a tipping point where the expected value of a ticket becomes positive (ie, expected payouts when aggregated across tickets sold exceed the paid cost of the tickets). I ran the numbers under the old system (before they added 10 additional white balls) and, while I don’t have them anymore, IIRC that point was around 480 mil (ie. a ticket bought at $2 was expected to return $2). I saw that someone else did it with the current system (didn’t check their numbers, so grain of salt and all that) but it looks like ~$800M each ticket has an expected value of >$2.00. It’s not a trivial calculation because you have to model ticket sales based on jackpot amount but it is a fun project to give to college level statistics or discrete mathematics students. Breaking that threshold is the only time that buying a ticket isn’t illogical, though it’s still very high risk for an individual to come out ahead.
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Flavien Vidal
> samssun
01/11/2016 at 07:03 |
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In all fairness, I don’t know of any company in the NASDAQ that are taxed at 35% :)
And to even remotely think that Apple would build anything in the US if taxes were lower is also a little bit stupid. Whenever americans workers will accept 100$ a month salaries for 50 hours week and wehn corportate taxes will be around 5%, then yes, Apple will produce in the US. But that will mean that america will have become a third world country.
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samssun
> Flavien Vidal
01/11/2016 at 07:30 |
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Apple does things here with the money made here, it just doesn’t want to make any more money here than necessary with the tax rate so high. Debating why they don’t bring money earned abroad back is posturing, because no sane person would.
I’ve studied several eeeevil megacorps’ actual financial statements, where they’re required to report their effective tax rates. Blue chip companies are almost always in the 25-35% range, only dipping below that when they’ve just had huge losses. Very high tax industries like energy can hit 40% which is insane.
Those super low rates you here on HuffPo and MSNBC are typically the amounts paid to the US govt on money earned abroad, which should be zero, or dividing their US burden into their world earnings. Of course it’s lower, because our tax rate is higher. It’s like telling someone who splits his year between NJ and FL that he’s shortchanging FL (and acting shocked when he decides to stay in FL).
Jayhawk Jake
> Flavien Vidal
01/11/2016 at 07:37 |
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Taxes and multiple winners mean it isn't guaranteed. Big risk
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Flavien Vidal
> samssun
01/11/2016 at 07:42 |
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Won’t get into a debate on that but according to Forbes, all things accounted for, Apple paid 13.8% of taxes in 2012. Not 9% like annonced on the NYPost at the time but also far from the 25% Apple brags about.
BKosher84
> promoted by the color red
01/11/2016 at 07:44 |
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After taxes it’s around 650 million.
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Flavien Vidal
> Jayhawk Jake
01/11/2016 at 07:59 |
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Yeah, didn’t know the US taxed lottery winners... Kind of make no sense, as it’s state run... A bit like getting taxed on your tax-returns...
Frenchlicker
> Flavien Vidal
01/11/2016 at 08:14 |
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They run as independent companies and the winnings are viewed as income.
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Jayhawk Jake
> Flavien Vidal
01/11/2016 at 08:34 |
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Since when has anything the US does involving money made sense?
Tohru
> Anon
01/11/2016 at 13:10 |
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With 4 tickets it puts your odds at 4/292.2 million, or 1/73.05 million.
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Anon
> Tohru
01/11/2016 at 13:56 |
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So you’re telling me there’s a chance?
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Tohru
> Anon
01/12/2016 at 01:37 |
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Yep!